Expert Elicitation Process

Expert elicitation process systematically gathers structured judgements from subject matter experts informing decision-making under uncertainty. Delphi methods employ iterative expert surveys converging on consensus estimates. Probabilistic encodings quantitate expert uncertainty through confidence intervals. Structured elicitation reduces cognitive biases compared to unstructured opinion solicitation.

Pharmaceutical applications include non-inferiority margin determination for clinical trials. Risk assessment employs expert elicitation estimating rare event probabilities. Regulatory submissions incorporate expert judgements supporting safety conclusions. Multidisciplinary expert panels integrate diverse perspectives strengthening decision quality. Emerging Bayesian methods formalise expert knowledge as prior distributions.